Questions to consider

• How much should we rely on EV estimates?
• What is pascals mugging, is this something we should be worried about?
• Do we endorse hits based giving?

Resources

Articles in bold are worth focussing on first, as this is an optional week the reading a looser summary, you're encouraged to go research other information on this topic!

Expected Value Theory

• Why maximise expected value?
• Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally
• Deworming might have close to zero impact - a case study in EV reasoning
• The allais paradox

Risk Aversion

• Pascal’s mugging**
• Risk Aversion
• In this universe, you have to be risk neutral
• Hits based giving
• How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers
• When should EAs be financially risk-averse?

Crucial considerations

• Crucial Considerations and Wise Philanthropy