Note: The content of this week was kindly put together by the team at Elicit who want to make their forecasting tools more accessible

Questions to consider

• How can I use forecasting tool to make and collate forecasts?
• How can I get better at forecasting?
• What sorts of public forecasts can EAs make use of?

Resources

Articles in bold are worth focussing on first, as this is an optional week the reading a looser summary, you're encouraged to go research other information on this topic!

1. Read / watch introductory content:
   • Below are a few introductions from various sources, their content will overlap so maybe choose one person in your group to will watch each introduction
   • Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts by Luke Muehlhauser (OpenPhil)
   • Forecasting & Estimation: An Overview by Amanda Ngo (Ought)
   • Introduction to Forecasting by Alexrjl (Top 50 Metaculus Forecaster)
2. Look at some examples of forecasting in action (more optional)
   • AGI Timelines forecasting thread
   • Existential risk forecasting thread
   • AGI Predictions
   • Collection of X-risk predictions
   • *PhilPapers*
3. Use tools to make and track personal forecasts
   • Elicit binary database (tutorial)
   • Elicit distribution builder (tutorial)
   • Guesstimate (made by Ozzie Gooen)
4. Start developing a track record on public forecasting platforms
   • Metaculus
   • Good Judgment Open
   • CSET-Foretell
   • PredictIt